17 September 2026
The start of the 2024 NFL season sent gambling stocks surging as Americans geared up for the Sunday ritual and prediction markets saw a sudden spike.
On the first Sunday of the 2024 NFL season, GeoComply recorded a record 93.1 million geolocation checks, nearly 48% higher than two weeks earlier. Geolocation checks are required to ensure that regulated bets are placed from within states where sports betting is legal.
That same Sunday, GeoComply also recorded an eye-popping 98,300 new sportsbook accounts, up more than 128% from the previous two weeks.
At the same time, prediction markets were making waves of their own. Five of the 8 operators tracked by Aldrin Research tallied a combined $340.6 million in NFL trading volume.
For early movers in the prediction-market space, the NFL season could be a game-changer. In June, DraftKings CEO Jason Robins revealed nearly $8 billion in annualized Predictions volume, up three times from March. More than 275,000 customers have engaged with the predictions product since it launched in October 2023.
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The NFL-driven boost has only increased DraftKings stock rally, which included a 12% bump in May on the back of a regulatory filing showing 18% month-on-month Predictions volume growth.
DraftKings isn't the only winner in this market: The Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF, Churchill Downs Inc. and other gambling stocks rebounded in March 2024, when the Roundhill ETF rose 3.1%.
The arms race between traditional sportsbooks and prediction markets looks promising for investors. As Chicago-based researcher Noah Daniels at Aldrin Research told Covers, "pari-mutuel betting models some advantages of prediction markets", drawing a comparison between traditional sportsbooks with point spreads and futures, and prediction markets with outcome-driven wagers.
It's hard to say which business models will ultimately come out on top. One thing is clear: with the NFL season underway, and other major sports seasons for basketball and baseball approaching, gambling stocks are back in play.
