Once you understand the basics of sports betting, attempting to apply strategies is the next step. Countless books attempt to discuss and create sports betting strategies that make money. It’s important to know that if there really were a killer strategy, everyone would use it and sportsbooks would be out of business.
There have been successful strategies, statistical models and other methods bettors have used to get an edge. In many cases, sportsbooks have since adjusted to take them into account. There is a constant battle between professional bettors looking for advantages and sportsbooks figuring out what the edge is and adapting.
There are some relatively simple principles to follow when looking for good bets with that caveat out of the way.
Shopping for lines
This isn’t a strategy for finding winning bets but rather a way to ensure you get the best price on a bet.
Think of a bet as a candy bar. The gas station around the corner sells the candy bar you want for $1. The convenience store a block away sells it for 89 cents. The grocery store across the street sells it for 79 cents. All other things being equal, you’d buy the candy bar from the grocery store. Well, the same concept applies to sports bets from different sportsbooks.
This requires looking for lines at multiple sportsbooks, which isn’t always an option but has become much easier with the growth of sports betting apps. Of course, the candy bar analogy is so simple in everyday life, but let’s show how that might look in the sports betting context.
Let’s say you like the Minnesota Twins to beat the Cleveland Guardians, so you want to bet them on the moneyline, which means if the Twins win, you win, no matter what the score is. You’ve also decided you want to win $100 on your bet. The next step is to look at different sportsbooks to find the best odds.
The Twins example is straightforward because only the odds can change on a moneyline bet. When dealing with spreads or totals, the line can also vary. Let’s look at actual lines for betting the Spurs against the spread at the Pelicans.
- Sportsbook A: Spurs +2 (-105)
- Sportsbook B: Spurs +2 (-110)
- Sportsbook C: Spurs +2.5 (-109)
This is less clear. Sportsbook A is clearly giving better odds than Sportsbook B. However, the spread is the same, and the odds are better.
Sportsbook C is also clearly better than Sportsbook B. You get an extra half-point, meaning if the Spurs lose by two you win instead of pushing, and you’re also getting -109 as opposed to -110. That’s a free half point and slightly better odds you could get just by shopping lines.
Sportsbook C and Sportsbook A offer different spreads. You get the extra half point at C, but A gives better odds. But, again, this is a matter of how valuable you think that half-point is.
Overall, shopping lines does little to guarantee winning bets but is a useful way to cut into the house advantage.
Betting trends
One common strategy employed by bettors is to look at trends. Trends can be as simple as riding a team’s hot streak or betting against a team that is in a slump they can’t seem to get out of. It can also work in less obvious ways like baseball teams that play better or worse in day games.
Hypothetically, the Athletics might be struggling in day games. As a bettor, you have to determine if that is a coincidence or if it’s because they have a bunch of partiers who don’t like waking up early for day games. Perhaps the A’s just happened to run into a bunch of stud pitchers in their recent day games and they were likely to lose those games no matter what time of day they played at. There’s a lot of noise in trends.
Another example is unders in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. Players were cooped up in quarantine leading up to the tournament and didn’t get morning shootarounds at the stadiums as a coronavirus protocol. As players shook off the quarantine rust, first half unders went 25-10 through the play-in games and the first round. After that, the totals adjusted, moving down in most games. The edge became much smaller, or even non-existent, the rest of the tournament.
Betting with a statistical model
Opening lines are often set using a combination of a computer model with a human touch to make sure nothing out of whack shows up. Finding your own statistical model to fight fire with fire is a useful tool in looking for good lines.
The college basketball statistical system KenPom is commonly referenced for things like tempo (which is valuable when betting on over/under totals) and comparative team rankings. If you find a model that can give you a score prediction or a percentage chance of winning, you can compare that to a betting line and figure out if there’s an advantage to be had. Just be sure to understand what the model does and doesn’t take into account. Betting lines attempt to take everything into account, from injuries to trends. Models aren’t always as flexible. Remember, sportsbooks also know about KenPom and have their own models to account for.
